Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market explicitly disconnects resolution from formal constitutional titles, official appointment, or international recognition, resolving instead on who exercises de facto governing authority and control over security forces and institutions at the snapshot time of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
This market explicitly disconnects resolution from formal constitutional titles, official appointment, or international recognition, resolving instead on who exercises de facto governing authority and control over security forces and institutions at the snapshot time of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because no official registry or constitutional declaration is used as the deciding source, resolution relies on an evaluator judging a consensus of credible reporting to determine who held real power. If power is fragmented or contested during a leadership transition, this de facto standard introduces substantial judgement about effective control.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alireza Arafi will be the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies on de facto primary governing control rather than formal constitutional title or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alireza Arafi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires primary governing authority, including control over armed forces, national institutions, and executive decisions, regardless of formal appointment or foreign recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·