Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution does not depend on official constitutional appointments, formal titles, or foreign recognition, but instead on who de facto exercises primary governing authority and control over state institutions and the armed forces on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
Resolution does not depend on official constitutional appointments, formal titles, or foreign recognition, but instead on who de facto exercises primary governing authority and control over state institutions and the armed forces on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Because no official register or government body serves as the deciding authority, the market relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting. In the event of opaque political maneuvering, contested succession, or shared governance in Iran, judging who holds true de facto control will require substantial interpretation by the resolution source.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohsen Araki will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution depends on actual governing control rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mohsen Araki de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, meaning he exercises primary governing authority and effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions regardless of formal title or recognition. The market resolves No if another individual holds this de facto authority, or if no individual exercises effective governing control. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, and expired prior service do not qualify. If multiple people claim the role, it resolves to whoever demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·