Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran rather than who holds a formal constitutional title such as Supreme Leader or President.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran rather than who holds a formal constitutional title such as Supreme Leader or President. Determining de facto control relies on a consensus of credible reporting assessing factors like command over armed forces and administrative institutions, which leaves considerable interpretive latitude to the decider if there is a political crisis, transitional council, or fragmented authority. A precise snapshot time is defined for December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, preventing timing drift, but positions hinge on reporting about practical domestic control rather than formal legal appointment or international recognition.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on who exercises effective governing authority and control over state institutions rather than formal title or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires exercising primary governing authority, including effective control over armed forces, national institutions, and executive decision-making, regardless of formal appointment or international recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds de facto authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control, resolving to 'No Head of State'. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·