Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on de facto control rather than official constitutional title or formal appointments.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on de facto control rather than official constitutional title or formal appointments. Power in Iran is structurally complex, and determining who holds primary governing control involves qualitative indicators like control over security forces and ministries. No single official authority or registry is designated to make this call; resolution depends on an evaluation of a consensus of credible reporting at a specific snapshot in time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). If governing authority is fragmented or disputed, deciders must judge which claimant holds effective control, or resolve to a designated fallback outcome if no individual qualifies.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ali Asghar Hejazi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Unusually, resolution relies strictly on de facto governing control and authority rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ali Asghar Hejazi de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including control over armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions regardless of formal title or recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual exercises this primary authority. If no individual exercises effective governing control at that time, the market resolves to "No Head of State". Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·