Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly specifies the exact resolution timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as an explicit longstop expiration date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly specifies the exact resolution timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as an explicit longstop expiration date of December 31, 2026. However, the resolution source is defined vaguely as the most liquid price source available rather than designating a specific price oracle, aggregator, or exchange. This grants the decider latitude to determine which trading venue had the deepest liquidity at the target time. Additionally, calculating fully diluted valuation relies on total token supply metrics that can differ between data tracking platforms depending on how unminted, vested, or locked allocations are treated.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenSea launches a token that reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation above $100M exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token is greater than $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $100M at that time, or if OpenSea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The valuation is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·