Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, alongside a definitive fallback resolving to No if no launch occurs by December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, alongside a definitive fallback resolving to No if no launch occurs by December 31, 2026. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or oracle. Determining which market is the most liquid and confirming the exact total supply figure required to compute fully diluted valuation leaves room for decider interpretation if token metrics vary across venues or aggregators.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenSea's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $1 billion one day after launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token is greater than $1B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the valuation is not greater than $1B at that time. The market also resolves to No if OpenSea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·