Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch, along with a firm long-term deadline of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch, along with a firm long-term deadline of December 31, 2026. However, resolution depends on the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or oracle. Determining total supply for the fully diluted valuation calculation and identifying which venue holds the most liquidity at the exact measurement time leaves room for interpretation if the valuation sits near the $3B threshold.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenSea's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation above $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of OpenSea's token is greater than $3 billion exactly one day after launch, defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $3 billion at that time, or if OpenSea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·