Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of an OpenSea token exceeds $500M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it becomes publicly transferable and tradable.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of an OpenSea token exceeds $500M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it becomes publicly transferable and tradable. The primary factor to monitor is the price and supply calculation, as the rules specify 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named data provider like CoinGecko or a specific exchange. Determining which venue is the most liquid and obtaining exact total supply figures at that specific timestamp requires judgment by the resolving party. There is also a definitive cutoff date of December 31, 2026, which resolves the market to No if no token launches by then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Opensea's token will have a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $500 million one day after its launch. The market has a specific deadline for the token launch to occur.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than $500 million one day after its launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. "One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch. The market resolves No if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is not greater than $500 million one day after its launch. The market also resolves No if Opensea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
the most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·