Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a clear deadline of December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET for an initial public offering to occur.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a clear deadline of December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET for an initial public offering to occur. Although the text includes boilerplate definitions for market-capitalization brackets and trading session interruptions from a multi-outcome market structure, the criteria for resolving to no IPO by the stated date are straightforward. Resolution relies on official primary exchange listing data, with an unspecified reliable source permitted only as a backup if the official exchange page lacks the figure.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic does not complete an initial public offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027. It is structured around Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day, with a dedicated outcome if no public listing occurs within the timeframe.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if Anthropic does not execute an IPO by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves based on Anthropic's market capitalization calculated from the official closing price and shares outstanding on its first day of trading. If the calculated value falls exactly between two range brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the closing price of the abbreviated session applies; if no official closing price is published for that session, the next trading day with a published closing price is used. Resolution decisions are based on the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·