Will John Kerry be arrested before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines what constitutes a qualifying arrest or detention through a detailed list of inclusions and explicit exclusions, such as unexecuted warrants or brief detentions without formal arrest.
Read the full assessment
The market defines what constitutes a qualifying arrest or detention through a detailed list of inclusions and explicit exclusions, such as unexecuted warrants or brief detentions without formal arrest. The deadline is explicitly fixed to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. While official government and law enforcement disclosures serve as the primary source, the rules also permit resolution via a consensus of credible reporting, introducing some minor discretion if reporting conflicts arise.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Kerry will be arrested or placed under qualifying detention before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if John Kerry is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement; voluntarily surrendering due to an arrest warrant or with an attorney; being formally booked or processed; being handcuffed and taken to a police station; or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met, including if a warrant or indictment is issued without arrest, if he is briefly detained without arrest, or if he is only questioned or interviewed. Resolution is determined by official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·