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CultureCloses · in 47 days$112.3K volumePart of: TIME Person of the Year 2026 →

Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves based on a single well-defined publication from an established official source, TIME magazine.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves based on a single well-defined publication from an established official source, TIME magazine. The rules clearly specify that an individual qualifies if explicitly named or if they are directly associated with an awarded group or concept and pictured on an official cover. A definitive cutoff date of June 30, 2027 is provided if no announcement occurs, leaving minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

23%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes23¢
No78¢
Zohran Mamdani · Yes · 1MO 28.5 H 33.5 L 17.5 C 22.5−6.0 (−21.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −13 pts24h · detected 8 Nov 2026, 04:10 UTC

The market price dropped from 29% to 16%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 03:00 UTC, 44% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 52 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for culture markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 8 Nov 2026, 04:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani will be named TIME Person of the Year for 2026. A distinctive aspect is that an individual can qualify if TIME names a group or concept, provided the individual is directly associated with it and pictured on an official announcement cover.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani is explicitly named TIME Person of the Year for 2026. If multiple people are named, all qualify. If the award is given to a concept, group, or thing, Mamdani qualifies for Yes if he is directly associated with it and pictured on an official TIME cover announcing the selection. The market resolves to No if he is not named or does not meet these criteria. The market also resolves to No if TIME does not announce a 2026 Person of the Year by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by official TIME magazine covers announcing the selection, with the feature article used as an additional source if needed.

Resolution source

TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year, or the TIME Person of the Year Feature article

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·