Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what counts as a meeting by requiring direct in-person interaction, such as a conversation or handshake, while explicitly excluding mere proximity, eye contact, or sharing a room.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what counts as a meeting by requiring direct in-person interaction, such as a conversation or handshake, while explicitly excluding mere proximity, eye contact, or sharing a room. However, there is no designated official record or authority responsible for certifying whether a qualifying interaction occurred; resolution depends entirely on evaluators determining whether a consensus among credible media reports exists. Additionally, the rule text appears to be adapted from a broader multi-option market on meeting locations, including an extraneous definition of Gulf states, though the core requirement of having no qualifying meeting through December 31, 2026, remains straightforward.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will fail to have an in-person meeting between market creation and December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No meeting by December 31" if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin do not have a qualifying in-person meeting during the timeframe. Otherwise, the market resolves according to the location of their next qualifying meeting. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact in person via an exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or attending the same event without direct interaction does not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·