Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution conditions are straightforward and align directly with the standard two-round electoral system for the French presidency.
Read the full assessment
The resolution conditions are straightforward and align directly with the standard two-round electoral system for the French presidency. The market resolves affirmatively if the candidate finishes in the top two of the first round or wins outright with over fifty percent of the vote. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with explicit recourse to official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A clear deadline of December 31, 2027, ensures that if the election is postponed beyond that date or canceled, the market resolves negatively. Overall, the mechanics are well-defined and leave minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Raphaël Glucksmann advances to the second round (or wins outright in the first round) of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it occurs on schedule or early.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Raphaël Glucksmann advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round by securing over 50% of the vote. The market resolves to No if he does not advance, if no such election occurs, or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·