Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes advancing, explicitly accounting for an outright victory in the first round as well as standard qualification for the runoff.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what constitutes advancing, explicitly accounting for an outright victory in the first round as well as standard qualification for the runoff. The market covers the next presidential election whether held on schedule in 2027 or called earlier, and includes a generous longstop date of December 31, 2027, resolving to No if no election occurs or results remain unknown. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but any ambiguity is checked against the official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Élisabeth Borne will advance to the second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Élisabeth Borne advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if she does not advance or win outright, or if no such election occurs, or if the first round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) used if there is ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the French Government Ministry of the Interior as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·