Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has a clear binary condition requiring formal, official recognition of Israel rather than preliminary announcements of intent.
Read the full assessment
The market has a clear binary condition requiring formal, official recognition of Israel rather than preliminary announcements of intent. While the resolution source allows for a consensus of credible reporting alongside official government statements, formal diplomatic recognition is an overt, high-profile sovereign act that leaves little room for ambiguity. The end date and time are specifically defined as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Syria officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. Only formal governmental recognition counts, while mere announcements of intentions do not.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Syria officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel qualifies; an announcement of intentions will not suffice. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not occur by this deadline. Resolution will be determined using official government information as the primary source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·