Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes an affirmative outcome, explicitly requiring formal recognition of Israel as a state rather than preliminary announcements of intention.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes an affirmative outcome, explicitly requiring formal recognition of Israel as a state rather than preliminary announcements of intention. While the title omits the year, the text provides a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For resolution verification, the market relies on official government information alongside a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some minor discretion if reporting varies, but the core criteria remain straightforward and aligned with standard diplomatic actions.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Malaysia officially establishes formal recognition of Israel as a state by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Malaysia officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only formal recognition by the government qualifies; a mere announcement of intentions does not count. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not occur by this deadline. The resolution is determined using official government information as the primary source, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also used.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·