Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective criteria for determining resolution.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and objective criteria for determining resolution. Market capitalization is explicitly defined using the closing share price and total shares outstanding on the first day of trading. The primary exchange's official listing page serves as the designated resolution source, with standard fallback provisions if the primary figure is missing. Clear contingency rules handle market interruptions and set a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2027, if no IPO occurs.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic achieves a market capitalization of $3.0 trillion or higher at the close of its first day of public trading. It includes a specific fallback outcome if the company does not complete an IPO before the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is $3.0T or greater at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on that day. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the market capitalization is below $3.0T at market close on its first trading day. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If trading is interrupted, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used, or the next trading day with an official closing price if none is published. Resolution is decided using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·