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EconomyCloses · in 48 days$2M volumePart of: Anthropic IPO by __? →

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market has straightforward criteria requiring Anthropic shares to be publicly listed and actively trading by the stated deadline, verified primarily through official regulatory filings such as SEC documentation and exchange confirmations.

Read the full assessment

The market has straightforward criteria requiring Anthropic shares to be publicly listed and actively trading by the stated deadline, verified primarily through official regulatory filings such as SEC documentation and exchange confirmations. A key rule to note is an early resolution provision: if Anthropic is acquired by a publicly traded company before the deadline, the market immediately resolves to No rather than remaining open.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

98%

chance

▼ −0.45 pts · 24h

Yes98¢
No2¢
December 31, 2026 · Yes · 1MO 72.5 H 98.9 L 66.0 C 97.7+25.2 (+34.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +12 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC

The market rose from 87% to 98% as related outcomes for Anthropic IPO dates in late 2026 also moved upward, indicating a broader repricing across the event's markets.

  • Largest hourly change: 21:00 UTC, 46% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 52 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: November 30, 2026 (up), December 15, 2026 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC

Earlier

▲ +20 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 21:25 UTCThe price rose from 73% to 89%, but with incomplete search data and no available news candidates, there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 03:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic lists its shares on a public securities exchange and begins public trading by December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if Anthropic shares are not listed and open for trading by the deadline. The market resolves immediately to No if Anthropic is acquired by an already public company. Resolution is determined using official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange (such as SEC Form S-1, Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (including SEC filings, exchange confirmations, and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·