EconomyCloses Dec 1, 2026 · in 17 days$838.8K volumePart of: Anthropic IPO by __? →

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules are straightforward and align well with the core question, requiring Anthropic's shares to be listed and actively open for trading on a public exchange by a precise deadline.

Read the full assessment

The rules are straightforward and align well with the core question, requiring Anthropic's shares to be listed and actively open for trading on a public exchange by a precise deadline. Official SEC filings, stock exchange listings, and company press releases serve as the primary sources, though fallback to credible reporting introduces minor discretion. Participants should note the specific early resolution clause: if Anthropic is acquired by an already-public firm rather than conducting its own public listing, the market will resolve to No immediately.

Resolver: Medium
Timing: Low
Wording: Low
Exceptions: Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 1 Nov 2026, 00:39 UTC

Current price

99%

chance

▲ +1.45 pts · 24h

Yes99¢

No2¢

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +16 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 21:25 UTC

30 days ago▲ +16 · 9 Nov

The market rose from 80% to 96% alongside a correlated outcome for December 31, 2026, which also moved upward, pointing to a broader repricing across related market dates.

Largest hourly change: 21:00 UTC, 51% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 21 days after the move hour.
1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: December 31, 2026 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 21:35 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Sep 7, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic lists its shares on a public securities exchange and begins trading by November 30, 2026. An acquisition by a public company triggers an immediate early resolution to No.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. The market immediately resolves to No if Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public. Resolution is decided using official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange (such as Form S-1, Form 8-A, listing confirmations, or official press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (including SEC filings and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 1 Nov 2026, 00:39 UTC