brierpoınt
Tech & ScienceCloses · in 47 days$657K volumePart of: Which company has best AI model end of 2026? →

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly operationalize the subjective question by defining the top model via a specific, named public benchmark: the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard text rankings with style control disabled.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly operationalize the subjective question by defining the top model via a specific, named public benchmark: the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard text rankings with style control disabled. The inspection time is set precisely to December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules also establish a detailed hierarchy for handling ties, falling back first to unrounded granular Arena scores and finally to alphabetical order of company names. Source discretion is minimal as the primary determination relies on a single published leaderboard table, with an alternate source invoked only if the primary website becomes permanently unavailable.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

75%

chance

▲ +2.5 pts · 24h

Yes75¢
No25¢
Google · Yes · 1MO 41.5 H 76.0 L 31.5 C 75.0+33.5 (+80.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC

The price rose from 65% to 76% as part of a joint repricing across related AI model outcomes, alongside a simultaneous decline in odds for Anthropic, the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 05:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 50 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Anthropic (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 19:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Market explained

This market measures whether Google owns the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard settings and includes tiebreaker rules based on exact scores and alphabetical company names.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if Google owns the model ranked first on the specified leaderboard at the check time. It resolves No if any other company's model occupies first place. Rankings are determined primarily by leaderboard rank with style control off. Ties are broken first by underlying unrounded Arena scores, and then by alphabetical order of the company names. The evaluation relies on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If the primary source is temporarily offline, the market remains open until it is accessible; if permanently offline, another resolution source will be used.

Resolution source

Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·