Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define how 'best AI model' is determined by pointing to a specific URL (the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control off) at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define how 'best AI model' is determined by pointing to a specific URL (the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control off) at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). The sorting hierarchy is explicitly laid out: models are ordered by leaderboard rank, then by granular unrounded Arena score, and finally broken alphabetically by company name if still tied. The only potential uncertainty arises if the primary website becomes permanently unavailable, in which case the decider would select an alternate resolution source.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether xAI will hold the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026. Resolution features explicit tiebreaking rules based on granular scores and alphabetical company order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if xAI owns the model holding the highest arena rank according to the specified ranking system. The market resolves to No if a model owned by another company holds first place. Models are ordered first by leaderboard rank on the text leaderboard with style control off, then by unrounded granular Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The outcome is determined by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If the source is offline, resolution waits for it to come back online, or uses an alternate source if permanently unavailable.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·