Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a specific public leaderboard checked at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) under explicit configuration settings (text leaderboard with style control off).
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a specific public leaderboard checked at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET) under explicit configuration settings (text leaderboard with style control off). The rules establish a clear, multi-step tie-breaking hierarchy that evaluates leaderboard rank, unrounded granular arena scores, and ultimately alphabetical ordering of company names. While the rules permit substituting another source if the specified website becomes permanently unavailable, the primary evaluation path is unambiguous and strictly defined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alibaba owns the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on specified leaderboard settings and tiebreakers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alibaba owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard when checked. The market resolves to No if any other company's model holds the first place spot. Rankings are determined using the Rank section with style control off. Ties on rank are broken first by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, and then by alphabetical order of the company names in the market group. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market remains open until it is accessible. If permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used. The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard decides the outcome.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·