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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 47 days$571.8K volumePart of: Which company has best AI model end of 2026? →

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly define how the top model is determined by specifying the exact website, URL tab, and filter setting on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at a precise timestamp on December 31, 2026.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly define how the top model is determined by specifying the exact website, URL tab, and filter setting on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at a precise timestamp on December 31, 2026. An explicit tie-breaking sequence is established, progressing from leaderboard rank to granular unrounded arena scores, and finally to alphabetical company name ordering. The primary condition to monitor is website uptime at the designated check time, though the rules provide a direct delay mechanism if the site is temporarily down, resorting to an unspecified fallback source only if the platform becomes permanently unavailable.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

19%

chance

▼ −2.5 pts · 24h

Yes19¢
No82¢
Anthropic · Yes · 1MO 42.5 H 57.5 L 18.5 C 18.5−24.0 (−56.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 19:55 UTC

The market price dropped from 32% to 21%, but available evidence is insufficient to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 05:00 UTC, 81% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 50 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 20:10 UTCThe price rose from 27% to 38% as related outcomes repriced, with Google moving downward at the same time as the likely driver.Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 20:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic owns the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if Anthropic owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at check time. It resolves No if another company owns the first-place model. Models are evaluated using the Rank section with style control off. In case of rank ties, the underlying unrounded Arena score is used, followed by alphabetical order of company names as the final tiebreaker. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline, the check is delayed until it returns; if permanently unavailable, another source will be used. The market resolves based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.

Resolution source

Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·