Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market defines the best model strictly through a named public benchmark: the top rank on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at exactly 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market defines the best model strictly through a named public benchmark: the top rank on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at exactly 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The rules specify the exact tab and view settings to consult, how to break ties using granular unrounded Arena scores, and a deterministic alphabetical tiebreaker if scores remain identical. A backup plan is provided if the site is temporarily down at the check time, though permanent unavailability defaults to unspecified alternative sourcing.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether DeepSeek owns the highest-ranking AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if DeepSeek occupies first place based on having the highest arena rank model. The market resolves to No if any other company occupies first place. Models are ordered primarily by leaderboard rank with style control off, then by unrounded granular Arena score to break ties, and finally by alphabetical order of the company name. The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard decides the outcome. If the site is temporarily offline at check time, resolution waits until it is available again; if permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·