Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define how resolution is determined using a specific named source: the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at a precise snapshot time on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET with style control turned off.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define how resolution is determined using a specific named source: the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at a precise snapshot time on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET with style control turned off. The criteria include explicit and objective tie-breaking mechanisms, descending from leaderboard rank to unrounded granular arena scores, and finally alphabetical ordering of company names if an exact tie persists. A fallback mechanism is provided if the site is temporarily or permanently offline, but the primary mechanics leave virtually no room for decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mistral will own the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of December 31, 2026. A notable aspect is the multi-step tiebreaker rule that uses unrounded Arena scores and then alphabetical order of company names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mistral owns the highest-ranking model on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard when checked at the specified time. The market resolves to No if another company owns the first-place model under the ranking system. Models are ranked primarily by leaderboard rank with style control off, secondarily by exact unrounded Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of the company name. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline at check time, the market waits until it is back online and resolves on the first check. If permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used. The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard decides.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·