Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes the best model by referencing a specific public source, the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, with exact navigation instructions including the specific URL, tab, and style control setting.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes the best model by referencing a specific public source, the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, with exact navigation instructions including the specific URL, tab, and style control setting. A precise timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET is designated for checking the table. The rules also establish a deterministic sequence of tiebreakers covering leaderboard rank, unrounded granular scores, and finally alphabetical ordering of company names. Downtime procedures are explicitly outlined, directing the decider to wait for the site to return online before resolving.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Meituan will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Meituan owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time. Models are ordered primarily by rank with style control off, secondarily by unrounded Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to No if any other company occupies first place. The primary deciding source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If unavailable at check time, the market waits until it is back online, or uses another resolution source if it is permanently unavailable.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·