Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the exact metric, URL, sub-tab, and filter setting (style control off) to be checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the exact metric, URL, sub-tab, and filter setting (style control off) to be checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Tie-breaking procedures are explicitly laid out in sequential order: official rank first, granular unrounded Arena score second, and alphabetical ordering of company names as the final tiebreaker. A reasonable contingency exists if the website is temporarily offline, keeping the market open until the leaderboard returns. The only minor ambiguity is an unspecified alternative source if the primary website becomes permanently defunct, but under standard operation, the resolution criteria are objective and fully defined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Meta owns the highest-ranking AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Meta owns the model holding first place on the specified leaderboard at the check time. The market resolves No if another company owns the first-place model. The deciding source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ("Leaderboard" tab, text leaderboard with style control off) checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Models are ranked primarily by leaderboard rank, secondarily by underlying Arena score if ranks tie, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. If the source is offline, resolution waits for it to return, or uses another source if permanently unavailable.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·