Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines clear resolution criteria based on an explicit public source and URL at a specific timestamp: December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The market defines clear resolution criteria based on an explicit public source and URL at a specific timestamp: December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. It specifies the exact leaderboard tab, filters (style control off), and a deterministic multi-step tiebreaker hierarchy spanning leaderboard rank, unrounded arena score, and alphabetical order. The only minor ambiguity is the fallback procedure if the primary website becomes permanently unavailable, which relies on selecting an alternate source.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether an AI model owned by Amazon holds the first-place rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if an Amazon-owned model occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time. It resolves No if a model owned by another company occupies first place. Models are ordered primarily by leaderboard rank from the Leaderboard tab with style control off. If models tie on rank, unrounded granular Arena scores break the tie. If a tie remains, the alphabetical order of company names serves as the final tiebreaker. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline at check time, the market remains open until it returns and resolves on the first check; if permanently offline, another source is used. The primary source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·