Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify a single named public benchmark, the exact URL and tab to check, and the required setting of style control off.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify a single named public benchmark, the exact URL and tab to check, and the required setting of style control off. An exact check time of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET is established, along with a detailed hierarchy for breaking ties using granular Arena scores followed by alphabetical ordering. A fallback mechanism accounts for potential site downtime. Position holders should simply be aware of the mechanical tie-breaker rules and the fallback clause stating that an alternative source may be chosen only if the primary leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether ByteDance owns the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026. Resolution relies on a strict multi-tier tiebreaking procedure including unrounded scores and alphabetical company names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if ByteDance occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard under the specified ranking system when checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves to No if any other company occupies first place. Models are ranked primarily by their leaderboard rank with style control off. If models tie on rank, they are ordered by unrounded Arena score. If still tied, the final tiebreaker is the alphabetical order of the company names. Resolution is decided using the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If unavailable at check time, the market waits until it comes back online, or uses another source if permanently unavailable.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·