Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market explicitly separates the formal announcement from physical reality on the ground: an official Israeli announcement that all ground forces have withdrawn suffices for a positive resolution even if incursions continue or territory remains occupied.
Read the full assessment
The market explicitly separates the formal announcement from physical reality on the ground: an official Israeli announcement that all ground forces have withdrawn suffices for a positive resolution even if incursions continue or territory remains occupied. Additionally, the Shebaa Farms region is specifically excluded from being counted as Lebanese territory. Resolution primarily relies on official Israeli government statements but permits an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting as an alternative, leaving some room for interpretation if official statements are ambiguous or if media reports conflict regarding whether full withdrawal has occurred.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel announces a full withdrawal of its ground forces from Lebanon by December 31, 2026. An announcement suffices even if territory remains occupied or incursions continue, and the Shebaa Farms area is excluded from consideration.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement that ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory qualifies even if territory remains under Israeli control or incursions continue, but announcements of planned or future withdrawals do not count. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory and is disregarded. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Information from the Israeli government serves as the primary resolution source, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming withdrawal may also be used.
Resolution source
Information from the Israeli government, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming withdrawal
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·