Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Israel announces the complete withdrawal of ground forces, explicitly stating that such an announcement is sufficient even if ground incursions persist or territory remains controlled.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Israel announces the complete withdrawal of ground forces, explicitly stating that such an announcement is sufficient even if ground incursions persist or territory remains controlled. A participant relying solely on the real-world operational presence of troops might be caught off guard by this announcement-based threshold. Additionally, the Shebaa Farms area is specifically excluded from being counted as Lebanese territory. While official Israeli government statements serve as the primary source, the rules also permit resolution based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for decider interpretation if official communication is ambiguous or disputed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
32%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel announces the complete withdrawal of its ground forces from Lebanon by December 31, 2027. Notably, the Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory and excluded from consideration, and an announcement of completed withdrawal suffices even if control or incursions continue.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israel announces that it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of completed withdrawal is sufficient even if some territory remains under Israeli control or ground incursions continue, but announcements of planned or future withdrawals do not qualify. The Shebaa Farms area is excluded from consideration as Lebanese territory. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is decided using information from the Israeli government as the primary source, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming the withdrawal.
Resolution source
Information from the Israeli government, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·