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EconomyCloses · in 47 days$269.1K volumePart of: How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? →

Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify how rate hikes are calculated, standardizing them into 25-basis-point increments and outlining how fractional changes between 1 and 24 basis points are treated.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify how rate hikes are calculated, standardizing them into 25-basis-point increments and outlining how fractional changes between 1 and 24 basis points are treated. Official Federal Reserve statements and websites serve as the definitive resolution sources, leaving no room for decider discretion. The market accounts for both scheduled FOMC meetings and unscheduled emergency actions through December 31, 2026, with a clear early resolution clause resolving to 'No' immediately if the cumulative count exceeds two hikes.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

89%

chance

▲ +3 pts · 24h

Yes89¢
No12¢
2 (50 bps) · Yes · 1MO 68.5 H 90.5 L 64.5 C 88.5+20.0 (+29.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 09:55 UTC

The market price rose from 76% to 87% as part of a joint repricing across related outcomes, with the probability for 1 rate hike moving down at the same time.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 64% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 50 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: 1 (25 bps) (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +10 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 17:10 UTCThe market price rose from 65% to 76%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 18:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly two 25 basis point rate hikes during 2026. What makes it unusual is that hikes are counted in 25 bps units—a 50 bps increase counts as two hikes, and an increase between 1–24 bps counts as one hike.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly 2 rate hikes of 25 basis points in 2026. Emergency rate hikes outside scheduled FOMC meetings and hikes at the December 2026 meeting are included. A single 50 bps hike counts as 2 hikes, and any hike between 1–24 bps inclusive counts as 1 hike. The market resolves to No if the total number of hikes in 2026 is anything other than 2. The market resolves early to No if more than 2 hikes have already occurred, making the target impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC post-meeting statements or the target federal funds rate published on the official Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·