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EconomyCloses · in 47 days$812.4K volumePart of: How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? →

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market clearly defines how rate hikes are calculated, specifically counting increments of 25 basis points and treating any hike between 1 and 24 basis points as one hike.

Read the full assessment

This market clearly defines how rate hikes are calculated, specifically counting increments of 25 basis points and treating any hike between 1 and 24 basis points as one hike. The resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve statements and data published at designated URLs. Holders should note the early resolution provision: if more than one rate hike occurs at any point during 2026, the market will resolve to No immediately rather than waiting until the end of the year.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

2%

chance

▼ −1.5 pts · 24h

Yes2¢
No98¢
1 (25 bps) · Yes · 1MO 18.5 H 34.0 L 1.4 C 1.8−16.7 (−90.3%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −21 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 09:40 UTC

The price fell from 24% to 3% as related outcomes for 2 and 3 Fed rate hikes rose, reflecting a broader repricing across 2026 interest rate hike expectations.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 63% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 50 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: 2 (50 bps) (up), 3 (75 bps) (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 23:40 UTCThe contract fell from 34% to 23% as related outcomes repriced, with the market for two rate hikes (50 bps) moving upward at the same time, serving as the likely driver.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 23:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly one 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026. Rate adjustments of 1–24 basis points count as one full hike, larger increases count as multiples of 25 bps, and emergency hikes outside regular meetings are included.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly 1 rate hike of 25 basis points across 2026, including during the December meeting. Hikes between 1 and 24 basis points count as 1 hike, and a 50 bps hike counts as 2 hikes. Emergency hikes outside scheduled meetings also count. The market resolves to No if the total number of 25 bps hikes in 2026 is not exactly 1. The market resolves early to No as soon as more than 1 hike has occurred. FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website decide resolution.

Resolution source

FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·