0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how rate hikes are counted, explicitly breaking larger moves down into increments of 25 basis points (for instance, a 50 bps increase counts as two hikes) and treating any move between 1 and 24 bps as one hike.
The rules clearly specify how rate hikes are counted, explicitly breaking larger moves down into increments of 25 basis points (for instance, a 50 bps increase counts as two hikes) and treating any move between 1 and 24 bps as one hike. Emergency rate adjustments are explicitly included alongside scheduled FOMC meetings, and the market stays open through the end of 2026 to capture any unexpected year-end action. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes. The market permits early resolution to No if the cumulative hike count exceeds three before year-end, ensuring predictable mechanics throughout the coverage period.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
8%
chance▼ −1.95 pts · 24h
The probability rose from 1% to 12%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 3 rate hikes (standardised in 25 basis point units) in 2026. A notable aspect is that rate increments between 1 and 24 basis points count as a full hike, and larger hikes are counted in multiples of 25 basis points.
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 3 rate hikes of 25 basis points in 2026, including actions from scheduled FOMC meetings through December 2026 and any emergency unscheduled hikes. A hike of 50 bps counts as 2 hikes, and any hike between 1 and 24 bps counts as 1 hike. The market resolves to No if the exact total of hikes in 2026 is any number other than 3. The market resolves early to No if more than 3 hikes occur before the end of the year. The outcome is determined using FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website.
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·