Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how interest rate hikes will be counted, defining increments such that a 50 basis point increase equals two hikes and any increase between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one hike.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how interest rate hikes will be counted, defining increments such that a 50 basis point increase equals two hikes and any increase between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one hike. Both scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and unscheduled emergency actions are included through the end of December 31, 2026. The market features an early resolution condition to resolve immediately to negative if more than four hikes have already taken place. Resolution relies on official statements and target rate publications directly from the Federal Reserve website.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 4 rate hikes (measured in 25 basis point increments) in 2026. Non-standard increments of 1–24 basis points count as 1 full hike, and larger hikes are counted in multiples of 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly 4 rate hikes in 2026. For counting purposes, hikes are measured in 25 basis point increments (e.g., 50 bps counts as 2 hikes), hikes of 1–24 bps count as 1 hike, and both scheduled FOMC meetings (including December) and emergency actions count. The market resolves to No if the total number of hikes is not 4, including resolving early to No if more than 4 hikes occur before year-end. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and official Federal Reserve target rate data.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·