Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly outline the specific constitutional requirements needed for a figure to count: receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and formally swearing in to establish a new government.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly outline the specific constitutional requirements needed for a figure to count: receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and formally swearing in to establish a new government. It explicitly excludes caretaker or interim positions that lack parliamentary confirmation. There is a precise final deadline of March 31, 2028, after which the market defaults to Other if no qualifying prime minister takes office. The primary source is official government information, although fallback language referencing a consensus of credible reporting introduces a small amount of decider latitude.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +1.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Santiago Abascal will be the next individual to become Prime Minister of Spain. An interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Santiago Abascal officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, which requires receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. It resolves to No if another qualifying individual assumes the office first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Spain serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·