Will Félix Bolaños be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions required for resolution: the individual must secure a formal vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be sworn in to form a new government by March 31, 2028.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions required for resolution: the individual must secure a formal vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be sworn in to form a new government by March 31, 2028. Caretaker or interim prime ministers who do not pass an investiture vote are explicitly excluded. The primary resolution source is official information from the Spanish government, providing an objective and well-defined standard for tracking the outcome.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Félix Bolaños will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, requiring both a parliamentary vote of confidence and a formal swearing-in.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Félix Bolaños is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, which requires receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under those same conditions first. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·