Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify an objective numeric threshold of a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, tracked directly via an official IMF Portwatch dashboard URL.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify an objective numeric threshold of a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, tracked directly via an official IMF Portwatch dashboard URL. The criteria for ship classifications, calendar attribution, and data revisions are explicitly laid out. Resolution occurs immediately once a qualifying data point is published or once the full month's data is completed without meeting the threshold.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −1.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market explained
This market measures whether IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz where the first qualifying date falls in December.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the first date for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls of at least 60 falls in December. Qualifying calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, while ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded. The market resolves No if another month contains the first qualifying data point, or once data has been published for the final date of December without any qualifying value. If data reaches December 31, 2026 without a qualifying value, it resolves to No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026. If no data for December 31, 2026 is published by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves based on data published up to that time. Once a data point qualifies, subsequent revisions do not disqualify it, and revisions made after the final date's data is published are disregarded. The deciding source is IMF Portwatch transit calls data for the Strait of Hormuz.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·