Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide objective, deterministic criteria tied directly to a single named source and URL.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide objective, deterministic criteria tied directly to a single named source and URL. Traffic returning to normal is clearly defined as a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 or higher on IMF PortWatch. The market resolves immediately if that threshold is hit, or after data through December 31, 2026 is published with a clear backstop date of January 31, 2027. Explicit clauses govern data revisions and clerical error review windows, leaving minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
95%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market explained
This market measures whether daily transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fails to return to a 7-day moving average of 60 or more ships during 2026 according to IMF PortWatch data.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026" (or Yes for traffic not returning) if IMF PortWatch publishes data through December 31, 2026, and no daily 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches 60 or above for any month in 2026. If no data for December 31, 2026, is published by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on data published up to that point. The market resolves to a specific qualifying month (or No) as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, while unreported ships do not count. Subsequent revisions will not disqualify a previously published qualifying data point. IMF PortWatch is the sole resolution source.
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·