Will Robert Downey Jr. be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on a single, well-defined official release: Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on a single, well-defined official release: Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The rules specify the exact category, geographic scope, and primary location to find the list. A clear fallback date of March 31, 2027, is provided in the event the list is not published, resolving to Other. The outcome leaves minimal room for ambiguity or administrative discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Market explained
This market measures whether Robert Downey Jr. ranks #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Note that while the question mentions "this year," the resolution rules specifically evaluate the 2026 list.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Robert Downey Jr. is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the official Year in Search list published by Google, regardless of navigation procedure.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026 published on Google Trends
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·