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EconomyCloses · in 75 days$702.8K volumePart of: Fed Decision in January? →

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify the exact metric used for resolution: the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the January 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the prior level.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify the exact metric used for resolution: the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the January 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the prior level. Official statements published on the Federal Reserve website serve as the definitive resolution source, eliminating decider discretion. Clear rounding rules are defined for non-standard rate changes, and a straightforward fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is released by the conclusion of the following scheduled meeting.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

39%

chance

▼ −7 pts · 24h

Yes39¢
No61¢
No change · Yes · 1MO 66.5 H 78.5 L 33.5 C 39.0−27.5 (−41.4%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 18:25 UTC

The probability of no change in Fed interest rates fell from 46% to 35%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 18:00 UTC, 64% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 76 days after the move hour.

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 18:35 UTC

Earlier

▼ −30 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 13:55 UTCThe market fell from 78% to 49% as part of a broader repricing across related outcomes for the meeting, with 2 other outcomes moving alongside it, including a rise in the 25 bps increase outcome.News check pending.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 09:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market explained

This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate remains unchanged following the January 2027 FOMC meeting.

How it resolves

The market resolves to the bracket corresponding to the basis-point change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level immediately prior to the January 2027 meeting. If the rate changes by an amount not explicitly listed, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket. The resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released following its January 2027 meeting or published on the official Federal Reserve website.

Resolution source

FOMC statement and the official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·