Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the interest rate refers to the upper bound of the target federal funds range and define how any rate change is measured relative to the level before the January 2027 FOMC meeting.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the interest rate refers to the upper bound of the target federal funds range and define how any rate change is measured relative to the level before the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The resolution source is the official Federal Reserve FOMC statement published directly on the central bank's website. Explicit provisions are included for non-standard rate adjustments by defining a standard rounding rule, and an objective fallback to a no-change outcome applies if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 or more basis points following its January 2027 meeting. Rate changes not explicitly listed in brackets round up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by 50 basis points or more compared to its level prior to the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not matching standard options round up to the nearest 25 basis points (for instance, a 12.5 bps reduction counts as 25 bps). The market resolves to No if the rate is decreased by less than 50 basis points, kept unchanged, or increased. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to "No change". Resolution is determined by the FOMC's post-meeting statement and Federal Reserve data.
Resolution source
FOMC post-meeting statement and Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·