Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the January 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the rate immediately prior.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate following the January 2027 FOMC meeting compared to the rate immediately prior. The resolution source is the official statement and website of the Federal Reserve, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation. Clear provisions are included for non-standard rate adjustments, which round up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.65 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with non-standard changes rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range is increased by 50 or more basis points compared to its level prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the rate changes by an unlisted amount, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the increase is less than 50 basis points, if rates remain unchanged, or if rates are cut. The market resolves to the "No change" bracket if no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. Resolution is determined by the official FOMC statement or the Federal Reserve's open market webpage.
Resolution source
The Federal Open Market Committee statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·