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EconomyCloses · in 75 days$812.4K volumePart of: Fed Decision in January? →

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly define the metric as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range following the January 2027 FOMC meeting.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly define the metric as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range following the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies on direct official publications from the Federal Reserve website. Participants should note the specific rounding rule, which dictates that any unconventional rate change not explicitly listed will round up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 basis point hike would count as 25 basis points). Additionally, if no statement is released before the conclusion of the subsequent FOMC meeting, the market defaults to resolving as no change.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

60%

chance

▲ +6 pts · 24h

Yes60¢
No41¢
25 bps increase · Yes · 1MO 31.5 H 62.5 L 17.5 C 59.5+28.0 (+88.9%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +31 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 13:40 UTC

The market price rose from 19% to 49% as related outcomes for the January 2027 Fed meeting repriced together, with 'No change' and '25 bps decrease' both moving down.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 59% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 78 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: No change (down), 25 bps decrease (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following the January 2027 FOMC meeting. It includes a specific rounding rule where non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased by 25 basis points compared to its level before the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not explicitly listed are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning a 12.5 bps increase counts as 25 bps. The market resolves to No if the rate change is any other amount, if rates are cut, or if there is no change. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to No change. Resolution is decided by the FOMC statement or official Federal Reserve data.

Resolution source

FOMC statement and official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·