Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question omits the specific year, though the rules clarify resolution occurs on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The question omits the specific year, though the rules clarify resolution occurs on December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified financial data provider such as Bloomberg or FactSet. Because market capitalization for global firms fluctuates across different time zones, market close hours, and currency exchange rates, the absence of a standardized calculation methodology or designated data feed leaves edge cases where rankings are close up to the subjective interpretation of media reports.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
23%
chance▼ −12.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Microsoft will hold the position of the second-largest company globally by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world by market cap at market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if any other company holds that position at that time. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·