Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated financial data provider such as Bloomberg, S&P, or official exchange data.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated financial data provider such as Bloomberg, S&P, or official exchange data. Because market capitalization calculations can vary across outlets based on share share-class consolidation, treasury stock inclusion, and foreign exchange conversion rates on year-end trading days, closely ranked companies could produce conflicting reports. Additionally, while the question is framed as a yes-or-no outcome for Tesla, the rule text is structured to resolve directly to the name of the second-largest firm, though the core condition for resolution remains tied to the closing valuations on December 31, 2026.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tesla holds the ranking of second-largest company in the world by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla is the second-largest company in the world by market cap as of market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if another company holds that ranking at that time. The resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·