Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question omits the specific year, though the rules clarify resolution applies to December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The question omits the specific year, though the rules clarify resolution applies to December 31, 2026. Evaluating relative market capitalization across global firms introduces complexity because companies trade on different international exchanges with different closing times, currency conversion rates, and potential holiday trading schedules on New Year's Eve. Furthermore, the rules do not designate a specific financial data provider or exchange index to measure market capitalizations, relying instead on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the ranking.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saudi Aramco ranks as the world's second-largest company by market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Aramco is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The market resolves to No if Saudi Aramco is not the second-largest company by market capitalization at that time. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·