Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or specific monitoring body, requiring judgement to determine whether reports confirm genuine entry.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or specific monitoring body, requiring judgement to determine whether reports confirm genuine entry. The rules clearly define which districts of Aden count and specifically exclude Al Buraiqeh, as well as excluding diplomatic emissaries, prisoners of war, naval activity, bombardment, or sabotage. However, determining whether armed individuals were operating under Houthi direction or deliberately operating within administrative district boundaries may involve subjective interpretation in chaotic conflict scenarios.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
12%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Houthi military forces enter specified districts of Aden, Yemen by December 31, 2026. Notably, entry into the Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is explicitly excluded from qualifying.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces (or armed forces operating under their direction or on their behalf) deliberately operate within specified districts of Aden by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying districts include Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Entry into Al Buraiqeh district, presence solely as prisoners of war or diplomatic/commercial emissaries, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or unverified claims do not qualify. The market resolves to No if Houthi military forces do not enter the qualifying districts by the deadline. If genuine ambiguity exists, the market may remain open for three additional days; if entry is not established by the end of the third calendar day at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to No. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·