Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes entering Aden by explicitly enumerating eligible districts and excluding Little Aden, diplomatic emissaries, prisoners of war, and remote bombardment.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes entering Aden by explicitly enumerating eligible districts and excluding Little Aden, diplomatic emissaries, prisoners of war, and remote bombardment. However, resolving the market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official authority or designated database, which introduces significant discretion when evaluating wartime claims and troop presence on the ground. A three-day grace period is provided to evaluate ambiguous events before resolving to No.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Houthi military forces enter specified districts of Aden, Yemen by November 30, 2026. A notable aspect is the explicit exclusion of the Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) and diplomatic emissaries.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces deliberately operate within any of the qualifying districts of Aden (Craiter, At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, or Al Mansura) by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Entry into Al Buraiqeh alone, presence as prisoners of war or diplomatic emissaries, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or unverified claims do not qualify. The market resolves to No if Houthi forces do not enter these districts by the deadline, or if entry is not established after a three-day extension in cases of genuine ambiguity. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·