Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market establishes straightforward criteria, resolving to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment against Donald Trump between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
This market establishes straightforward criteria, resolving to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment against Donald Trump between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly state that Senate action, conviction, or removal from office is not required for a Yes outcome. Official US federal government records serve as the primary source, with credible reporting consensus available as a fallback, creating minimal ambiguity or surprise risk for participants.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
54%
chance▲ +3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2027. It does not require Senate conviction or removal from office.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives votes by simple majority to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Senate trial, Senate conviction, and removal from office are not required for a Yes resolution. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is information from the US federal government, with a consensus of credible reporting used as well.
Resolution source
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·